10.10 Financial Breakfast: The situation of the Korean party celebrates Catalonia

On Monday (October 9), trading was relatively flat, and risk aversion has warmed up, mainly because Trump claimed that "there is only one way to work" in dealing with North Korea. This has led to speculation that the United States may carry out military operations, stimulating demand for safe havens. In addition, on October 10, North Korea will celebrate the 70th anniversary of the Labor Party. Whether it will be a tough response to Trump is still worthy of observation. The gold price benefit rebounded for two consecutive days, and the US dollar did not further strengthen due to better-than-expected September salary data, as the market's interpretation of the hurricane factor may lead to a lack of sustainability in salary increases.

The ECB Executive Board, Laurent Schlegel, called on the European Central Bank to cut its asset purchase plan in 2018, and the market's eyes began to shift to the ECB monetary policy meeting on October 26. However, the recent fluctuations in the euro may also be affected by political factors. In addition to the accidents in the independence of Catalonia, the German formation process, as well as the Brexit events, have great uncertainties. Another noteworthy matter is the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting to be released on Wednesday (October 11). Previously, the Fed’s monetary policy statement and Yellen’s speech were interpreted as hawks, and whether the positions of the Fed members are different is still worthy of attention.

Tuesday Preview:

--:-- The President of the Catalonia Autonomous Region, Puigmont, is expected to deliver a speech at the regional council on Tuesday, when he may unilaterally declare independence.

22:00 The chairman of the Federal Reserve of Minneapolis, USA, and the 2017 FOMC voting committee, Kashkari, delivered a speech at a regional economic conference.

Review on Monday:

1 European Central Bank Executive Committee Lautsch Schlegel: All factors of low inflation appear to be temporary;

2 British Prime Minister Teresa May: The EU's budget problem can only be resolved when discussing the future relationship between the two sides;

3 German Chancellor Merkel: The cabinet dialogue will begin on October 20th;

4 Saudi Ministry of Petroleum spokesman: Despite strong demand in September, Saudi Arabia still limits crude oil exports to 6.7 million barrels per day;

5 European Central Bank Executive Committee MM: It is increasingly difficult to make inflation expectations in a globalized world;

In the 6 euro zone, the Sentix investor confidence index for October was 29.7, hitting a 10-year high;

7OPEC Secretary General Balkindu: There is clear evidence that the oil market is rapidly returning to equilibrium;

8OPEC Secretary General Balkindu: After the November meeting, more oil-producing countries may join the production reduction agreement;

9 Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People's Bank of China: The exchange rate reform cannot be “wait, rely on, and must”. It is necessary to seize the right time window;

[List of major global markets]

stock market

The weekly Jones Industrial Average fell 12.60 points, or 0.06%, to 22,761.07 points. The Nasdaq index fell 10.45 points, or 0.16%, to 6579.73 points. US stocks closed down from record highs on Monday, trading was light, and the S&P 500 index was down 18% below the 30-day average. Investors assess Washington's latest political progress before the start of the performance season. The rise in technology stocks such as Microsoft failed to offset the impact of the decline in GE and healthcare stocks.

commodity

The price of gold rose on Monday and was completely recovered last week. Due to the weaker dollar, geopolitical worries in North Korea and Spain support the price of gold. Trump once again tweeted on the weekend to provoke North Korea that the United States has "successfully dealt with North Korea for the past 25 years," and he insisted that "only one thing can work." Although he did not explicitly point out, it was enough to trigger speculation about possible military actions. In addition, the announcement of independence by the leaders of the Catalonia region this week is also one of the geopolitical risks of concern to the market. At the same time, investors should also pay attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting announced on Wednesday to further observe the clues to raise interest rates at the end of the year.

On the crude oil side, a Saudi oil ministry spokesman said that despite the strong demand in September, Saudi Arabia still restricted crude oil exports to 6.7 million barrels per day. And hope to express a firm commitment to restore the balance of supply and demand in the oil market by limiting production and exports. In addition, OPEC Secretary-General Balkindu also said on the weekend that discussions on the continued implementation of the production reduction agreement after March 2018 have begun. At the organization’s November 30 meeting in Vienna, more oil-producing countries may join the production cut. protocol. This means that the production of the country will be reduced, and Libya and Nigeria may also join the team that cut production. At the same time, the possibility of a reduction in production is further increased. However, recovery in US production may still be a major obstacle to limiting oil prices.

In addition to the above quotes for gold, silver and crude oil, Huitong.com also quotes the Shanghai Gold Exchange for you.

Foreign exchange

The US dollar index fell from a 10-week high on Monday, as the euro rose and the tension between the US and the DPRK rose again. Germany's August quarterly adjusted industrial output monthly rate recorded the largest increase in more than six years to boost the euro. ECB Executive Board Lautsch Schlegel called on the European Central Bank to cut its asset purchase plan in 2018 and boost the euro. Trump claims that "there is only one way to work" in dealing with North Korea. The market has speculated that it is possible to implement military operations, stimulating demand for safe havens and suppressing the dollar. However, given that the Fed’s interest rate hike is still strong at the end of the year and the political risks in the euro zone continue to emerge, the dollar remains attractive against the euro. In addition, investors should pay attention to the minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting announced on Wednesday. Whether the market's previous interpretation of the Fed's position is comprehensive and correct, it still needs to wait for the minutes of the meeting to be verified.

[International Finance News]

[The British Prime Minister Teresa May: The EU's budget problem can only be resolved when discussing the future relationship between the two sides] British Prime Minister Teresa May: The EU's budget problem can only be resolved when discussing the future relationship between the two sides. During the implementation of Brexit, the UK will retain the terms of the EU's single market access. After Brexit, I hope to establish a unique and ambitious economic partnership with the EU. Reluctant to accept the current economic model between the EU and the EU after the Brexit. I want to creatively solve the new economic relationship with the EU after the Brexit.

[European Central Bank Executive Board Lautsch Schlegel: All factors of low inflation appear to be temporary] ECB Executive Board Lautsch Schlegel: All factors of low inflation appear to be temporary. Inflation has risen, but the pace is not as fast as expected. Inflation will return to the target level, which is only a matter of time. Although there are side effects, the current low interest rates are reasonable. It is expected to reduce the scale of bond purchases at the beginning of next year.

[German Chancellor Merkel: The cabinet dialogue will begin on October 20th] German Chancellor Merkel: The cabinet dialogue will begin on October 20. The CDU agreement is a good basis for the dialogue. The Conservative Party decided to invite the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party to participate in the cabinet talks next week. The government and the parliament can adjust the ceiling of 200,000 refugees per year.

[European central bank executive committee murder: making it more difficult to make inflation expectations in a globalized world] ECB executives mobilize: It is increasingly difficult to make inflation expectations in a globalized world. In the globalized world, it is increasingly difficult to predict inflation, there are many common trends in inflation determinants, and common shocks such as commodity prices. Given the limited experience of decision makers in the vicinity of interest rates at the lower end of the effective effective interest rate range, there is deep uncertainty as to whether normal rules will continue to provide general guidance for monetary decision making.

[Eurozone October Sentix investor confidence index was 29.7, hitting a 10-year high] The Eurozone October Sentix investor confidence index was 29.7, hitting a 10-year high. Sentix said in a statement that the first economic test after the German parliamentary election can be seen as a success, and the strength of the global economic growth engine continues to grow. If a pro-business government is formed as expected, it may see stronger economic growth in the coming months; however, if there is a power vacuum in Berlin, the possibility of disappointment is high.

[OPEC Secretary-General Barkindu: There is clear evidence that the oil market is rapidly returning to equilibrium] OPEC Secretary-General Balkindu: There is clear evidence that the oil market is rapidly returning to equilibrium. For example, inventory levels have fallen, crude oil demand has been revised, spot premiums on cloth oil, and US shale oil output growth has slowed. In August, OECD refined oil inventories were about 25 million barrels higher than the five-year average, basically converge toward a five-year average. Moreover, the expected increase in demand for crude oil in 2017 and 2018 in the previous OPEC monthly report may be a continuing trend.

[OPEC Secretary General Balkindu: After the November meeting, there may be more oil-producing countries to join the production reduction agreement] OPEC Secretary General Balkindu said on Sunday (October 8) that the organization and other oil-producing countries may Some unconventional measures are needed to restore the balance of the oil market. Consultation work on the continued implementation of the production reduction agreement after March 2018 has commenced, and at the Vienna meeting of the organization on November 30, more oil-producing countries may join the production reduction agreement. Nigeria and Libya, which are not subject to the production reduction agreement, are moving towards full recovery, after which they may join the agreement.

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