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On the first trading day of 2017 (January 3), the central bank only carried out a 40 billion yuan reverse repurchase in the open market. On the same day, the open market had a reverse repurchase of 115 billion yuan, and the 80 million yuan that expired on the 2nd was reversed. The purchase was also extended to the expiration of the 3rd, which resulted in a net withdrawal of 155 billion yuan. Market participants pointed out that the MPA assessment time has passed at the end of the year. In addition, due to the end of the year, the fiscal trillions of loans and the central bank continued to be released. At the beginning of the year, liquidity remained loose, and the main repo rate fell. However, the central bank's operation turned to a net return. Maintaining a tight liquidity attitude remains the same, and the pressures of holiday cash redemption demand, foreign exchange purchase demand, and open market concentration are still in place. There is still fluctuation risk before the Spring Festival.
Loose funds
According to the announcement of the central bank, on Tuesday (January 3), the central bank launched a 20-day 7-day reverse repurchase and a 20-billion-day reverse repurchase in the open market. The winning bid rates were 2.25% and 2.40%, respectively. The same as the previous operation. On the same day, the open market had a reverse repurchase of 115 billion yuan. In addition, the reverse repurchase of 80 billion yuan due on Monday was postponed to Tuesday, and the net withdrawal of the day was 155 billion yuan.
With the end of the MPA assessment at the end of the year, the funds at the beginning of the year resumed easing, and the main repo rate fell, with 14-day variety interest rates going down. The data shows that in the inter-bank pledged repo market, yesterday's overnight weighted interest rate rose 2.45BP to 2.1259%; the indicator 7-day weighted interest rate rose 7.61BP to 2.769%; 14-day weighted interest rate dropped significantly 128.29BP to 2.5052%; 21-day weighting The interest rate is down from 148.56BP to 4.6405%; the one-month weighted rate is up from 19.39BP to 3.4982%. According to the trader, yesterday was the first trading day in 2017. After eliminating the influence of the year-end factors, the funds on the day showed a loose trend, and the big ones melted overnight to one month.
In addition, January 3 was the first day of implementation of the new SHIBOR standard. Yesterday, the Shibor interest rate rose mostly, and overnight and 14-day varieties fell. Among them, the overnight shibor fell 2.1 basis points to 2.2090%, the 7-day shibor rose 4.6 basis points to 2.5890%, and the 1-month period rose 0.67 basis points to 3.3126%, which increased for 38 trading days and the longest since the beginning of June 2010. The company continued to rise; the three-month period rose 0.87 basis points to 3.2813%, and rose for 53 trading days, the longest consecutive period since the end of 2010.
There is still risk of fluctuation before the Spring Festival
Market participants pointed out that at the end of the year, the MPA assessment time has passed and the liquidity has eased. However, factors such as personal exchange before the Spring Festival and cash withdrawal during the Spring Festival will still bring pressure to liquidity. Under the guidance of the government's moderate and orderly leverage, the marginal tightening pressure of funds will still exist. It is expected that the central bank will increase the funding. The probability that the liquidity risk will rise sharply again will be reduced, but it is still necessary to be alert to the risk of fluctuations in the funds.
"Before the Spring Festival funds face remained under pressure." Haitong Securities 600837, 06837 buy Hong Kong stocks, said the Spring Festival in January 2017, will face a $ 50,000 swap lines and re-release the pressure before the holiday cash. In addition, the expiration of the open market before the Spring Festival after the New Year's Day reached 1.75 trillion yuan. If the central bank did not put it in place in time, the pressure on the funds was still fluctuating.
Wind information statistics show that this week (December 31, 2016 - January 6, 2017) central bank open market has 745 billion yuan reverse repurchase due, no central bank bill and repurchase due; Monday to Friday The funds for the period are 80 billion yuan, 115 billion yuan, 160 billion yuan, 150 billion yuan, and 240 billion yuan.
CICC's Hong Kong stock market 03908 pointed out that considering the MPA assessment and LCR assessment are quarterly assessments, and after the New Year's Day, will soon usher in the Spring Festival, the funding will be tightened due to seasonal factors, so the money market interest rate is difficult to return The level of interbank deposit and interbank deposit rates until November, especially for more than one month, may remain at a relatively high level.
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