At present, the commercial inventory of cotton is relatively low, and the current cotton price is rising. Currently, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the downstream spinning mills can withstand the pressure brought by the increase in cotton prices, and then they will enter the deep season of the cotton market, but we must also consider the weather between them. The hype and the specific impact on the output. And how strong is the driving force of the peak season in September. At present, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts are close to 40,000 tons. If the current price difference is too large, there will inevitably be more cash in delivery.
In the second quarter of this year, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices have risen nearly 50%. Data show that as of June 30, the main contract of cotton futures 1701 reported to 14,725 yuan per ton. Analysts inside the industry said that the rapid increase in cotton prices, on the one hand, is that the national cotton acreage in 2016 will decrease by about 10%. This year, the national cotton production is expected to be significantly reduced. On the other hand, the devaluation of the renminbi will push up the export of textile industry is expected to be upstream. The cotton industry has brought a strong boost, which has made the cotton market driven by improved supply and demand fundamentals.
It is understood that from the end of storage in 2014, cotton production began to decline, due to natural disasters, this year's cotton production may be only 4.3 million tons to 4.5 million tons. From the perspective of imports, it started from the end of storage in 2014, and the country began to control the import volume, mainly to reduce the issuance of import quotas. The monthly import volume reached a historic low this year.
Prior to this, the market generally expected cotton to start dumping in March. According to industry insiders, if the sell-out was honored in March, the market may still fall, and the market price of cotton may be lower than the reserve price. Since last year was a similar situation, 1 million tons was dumped in July last year and the actual turnover was about 63,000 tons. However, in fact, it was postponed until May, significantly exceeding market expectations. During the two months, the consumption of commercial stocks increased.
Another hot spot that the market is paying attention to recently is cotton planting area and recent weather. Relevant monitoring data show that the area sown by cotton in 2016 has been greatly reduced, with a reduction of 14.3% in the whole country, and the reduction is generally above 20% in areas other than Xinjiang. Xinjiang has a large amount of subsidies and a target price of 18,600 yuan/ton. The sown area decreased less, at 6.3%. Regardless of the impact of State Reserve Cotton, the supply of cotton will be in a state of shortage in 2016, which will provide some support for cotton prices.
In addition, the recent high temperature and hailstorms in Xinjiang affected the yields, market funds took the opportunity to speculate, but the market expects that the reduction in the output caused by the weather is expected to be more limited, affecting the output will not exceed 400,000 tons, began dumping on March 1, 2017, 50,000 tons / day, 400,000 tons is also about eight days of throwing reserves, if the current production cuts take into account the new year's throwing storage, the fundamental impact on the new year's supply and demand patterns, the new year's overall supply and demand pattern is still bearish. Therefore, the price of the weather caused by hype is very limited.
However, in the face of the current trend of cotton prices, the market is also divided, and some people believe that the reason why domestic cotton has risen has a certain relationship with the pace of the State Reserve Cotton Reserve. As long as the State Reserve Bank increases its efforts, cotton prices will fall sharply. In this regard, some analysts said that for the current main contract cotton prices should be dynamic to see, first of all, the September contract price under the speculation of warehouse receipts and other topics, the price increase is greater.
It is worth noting that current cotton purchases by textile companies are active, and raw material stocks of textile enterprises are still relatively low. To maintain production, replenishment of stocks is needed. However, cotton resources in the spot market are lacking, and textile enterprises mostly use warehouse storage cotton to replenish stocks. positive.
Analysts said that cotton prices continued to be strong, throwing deposits slowly, with high turnover, rising prices, giving the market positive feedback, foreign cotton sources are tight, and the weather in the growing season is easy to rise. Under these conditions, the cotton theme is still positive. In addition, with the promotion of funds, the market as a whole is still operating well, but after the continuous rise or there is a need for consolidation.
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